PREDICTION: Patriots 45-17
KEYS TO THE GAME: The Patriots have won 22 of the past 24 meetings by
dominating the turnover battle, and this season is no different. The
Bills (minus-7) have to keep the game close enough to lean on their
backfield tandem of C.J. Spiller (7.2 yards per carry) and Fred Jackson.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can attack deep if he has time to find WR Donald
Jones, who has seven catches for 191 yards in the past two games against
the Patriots. New England keeps the throttle open, averaging an
NFL-leading 32.8 points and 440.8 yards per game. He has looked to TE
Rob Gronkowski early and often against Buffalo, especially in the red
zone. The Bills can’t sit back in a deep zone or they’ll set up RB
Steven Ridley for another big day. Ridley and Brandon Bolden combined
for 243 rushing yards in the first meeting (a 52-28 Patriots victory at
Buffalo in Week 4).
FAST FACTS: Brady is 19-2 with 49 touchdowns against Buffalo. …
Fitzpatrick has 300-plus passing yards in three consecutive games. He
had four touchdown passes in the first meeting.
PERSONNEL NEWS
BILLS
–TE Scott Chandler, who is coming off a poor game at Houston, will be
looking to get on track against the Patriots Sunday in New England.
Chandler had four catches for 62 yards and two TDs in this season’s
first matchup with the Patriots and can expect some extra attention.
–RB C.J. Spiller is averaging more than 7.0 yards per carry but his
workload has been less than demanding in Buffalo’s dysfunctional
offense. Spiller had just six carries in last week’s loss to Houston. He
had just eight carries in this year’s first matchup against New
England, Sunday’s opponent in Foxboro. On the year, he has 78 carries
for 562 yards.
–PK Rian Lindell converted all three of his field-goal attempts in
last week’s loss to Houston, making him 8 of 9 for the season. He
remains second on the club’s career scoring list with 924 points,
trailing only Steve Christie (1,011 points).
–QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has 71 career touchdown passes with Buffalo,
placing him fourth all-time. He’s six behind Jack Kemp for third place.
Heading into Sunday’s game at New England, Fitzpatrick’s career record
as a starter is 17-28 with Buffalo and 21-38-1 all time.
–DE Alex Carrington blocked his third career field goal last week at
Houston. It was his second of the year, making him the first Bill since
Bruce Smith (three) in 1996 to have two or more blocks in a season.
INJURY IMPACT
–LT Cordy Glenn, who returned to the starting lineup after missing
three games with a high ankle sprain, came out of the Houston game in
good shape. Buffalo’s depth at tackle is being tested due to injuries
and it was critical Glenn returned at this juncture.
–DE Mark Anderson, a key free-agent signing, won’t be available to
square off against his former team at New England on Sunday. Anderson
remains sidelined after a surgical procedure on his knee and may need
more surgery if he doesn’t come around soon. The Bills’ pass rush
remains sporadic.
–WR Stevie Johnson is nursing a thigh contusion but is expected to
play Sunday at New England. How the injury affects his speed will be of
concern as Buffalo goes against New England’s No. 22 defense that can be
vulnerable to big plays.
PATRIOTS
–CB Devin McCourty received praise from coach Bill Belichick this
week for the versatile defensive back’s ability to tackle. Belichick
went on to praise that ability in rookie corner Alfonzo Dennard while
saying that skill was important for all New England defensive backs.
“I’d say it’s pretty important to us. Tackling is an important
criteria for every position but especially the secondary, that’s kind of
the last line of defense,” Belichick said. “If the nose guard misses a
tackle then hopefully you’ve got some guys behind him. If you miss a
tackle in the secondary, there aren’t a lot of guys left. You can’t
expect the nose tackle to run him down either. I think it’s definitely
important. Alfonzo, he plays strong. He has good playing strength, he’s a
tough kid. Tackling is on the positive side for him.”
–TE Aaron Hernandez was back on the practice field Nov. 8 after
missing the previous day’s action for the birth of his first child,
daughter Avielle. “It’s definitely a great experience,” Hernandez said
of the birth, he and his daughter interestingly sharing the same Nov. 6
birthday. “And a beautiful little girl. I’m excited.”
“One thing I know, it definitely changed my life. I’m going to look
at things differently,” Hernandez said. “And I may be young and wild,
but I’m not. I’m engaged now, and I have a baby. It’s just going to make
me think of life differently, and doing things the right way, because I
know another one’s looking up to me. I can’t just be young and reckless
Aaron anymore. I’m going to try to do the right things, become a good
father, and be raised like I was raised.”
–QB Tom Brady is obviously a pretty fashionable guy. He’s done plenty
of photo shoots and magazine covers. He’s married to the world’s
greatest supermodel. But sometimes his fashion sense is still questioned
in New England. That was the case this week after Brady was
photographed at a special Aerosmith concert in Boston wearing Dwight
Howard-like black-frame glasses, a black coat and a flesh-colored V-neck
shirt. At his weekly press conference a local writer told Brady that
sometimes he dresses “kind of weird.”
Brady’s response? “Thank you.”
When a follow-up asked what was going on with his fashion and whether he laid his clothes out, Brady offered little.
“I have no response to that,” the quarterback said with a laugh.
–DT Myron Pryor began the season on PUP with a pectoral injury. The
fourth-year player was not activated to practice in the three-week
window to do so on PUP, so he will remain on PUP for the remainder of
the season. Pryor also spent the bulk of last fall on IR after playing
just two games before a shoulder injury.
–TE Jake Ballard, claimed off waivers from the Giants this preseason,
will not practice coming off PUP but rather remain on PUP for the
remainder of the 2012 season.
INJURY IMPACT
–RB Brandon Bolden did not practice on Thursday as he continues to rehab his knee injury.
–DE Trevor Scott missed practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury that’s kept him out the last couple weeks.
–LB Tracy White did not practice on Thursday due to the ankle injury that’s kept him out of action for a month now.
–CB Kyle Arrington was one of 14 Patriots who were limited in practice on Thursday as the cornerback deals with a concussion.
–DL Ron Brace (elbow) was limited in practice on Thursday.
–S Patrick Chung was limited for the second straight day due to his shoulder injury.
–S Steve Gregory (hip) was once again limited as he tries to work
back into playing shape after missing more than a month of action.
–TE Rob Gronkowski (hip) was limited on Thursday, though he hasn’t
missed any action with the injury that’s bothered him most of the
season.
–TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) was limited on Thursday with the injury
that was originally suffered in the Week 2 loss to the Cardinals.
–LB Dont’a Hightower continues to be limited in practice with a
hamstring injury, though he returned to normal game action prior to the
bye week.
–WR Brandon Lloyd (knee) was limited on Thursday.
–G Logan Mankins (calf/hip) continues to be limited with the injuries that have affected him all season.
–LB Jerod Mayo (elbow) was limited.
–OL Nick McDonald (shoulder) remains limited.
–LB Brandon Spikes was limited on Thursday with a knee injury.
–T Sebastian Vollmer continues to be limited with back and knee
injuries, though the health issues haven’t forced him to miss much game
time this year.
–WR Wes Welker (ankle) was limited on Thursday.
–WR Julian Edelman (hand) was listed as having full participation on Thursday.
–DL Kyle Love was full participation despite a knee injury.
INSIDE THE CAMPS
BILLS
The Bills are being forced to shake up their shaky defensive
secondary in time to face Tom Brady and his high-scoring New England
offense.
Left cornerback Aaron Williams is not expected to play after
suffering a knee injury in last week’s loss to Houston, meaning Leodis
McKelvin will return to the starting spot. McKelvin, a former
first-round pick who leads the NFL in punt return average at 19.5, has
been an inconsistent player at corner but the Bills will need him to
respond to this opportunity.
Meanwhile, Da’Norris Searcy is starting to take more repetitions at
strong safety, a developing story as the Bills get set to face the
Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski, who has enjoyed repeated success against
Buffalo, such as five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown in New
England’s 52-28 victory over Buffalo on Sept. 30.
Williams’ injury won’t sideline him for the rest of the year, coach
Chan Gailey said, but it could linger a few games. He said he’s eager to
see McKelvin step up. Buffalo’s next option is second-year pro Justin
Rogers after veteran Terrence McGee went on season-ending injured
reserve this week with a lingering knee problem.
“Yeah, I think he is very motivated,” Gailey said of McKelvin. “I
think that Leodis has never lacked confidence. He has a great deal of
confidence in himself, his abilities and ability to play. He practices
hard every day he walks on the field. You have to ask him to get the
answer, but I think he has a chance to go play extremely well. Hopefully
he learned from some of the things that happened in the past.”
McKelvin is a gifted athlete who has the speed to run with any
receiver in the league. His problems arise from questionable ball
skills; he has never consistently timed his jumps defending passes and
he has dropped many would-be interceptions.
He said he’s eager to get back into the starting lineup and that he’s got something to prove.
“Most definitely,” McKelvin said. “Every time you go out on the
field you have something to prove. You have something to prove to the
guys that you are playing against. You have something to prove to the
guys you are playing with and you have something to prove to the guys
that give me the trust to go out there and perform.”
Gailey said he’s not displeased with Wilson’s play but at age 30, Wilson may benefit from sharing some of the wear and tear.
“(I’m) very satisfied with George’s play,” Gailey said. “Da’Norris
is a good football player and he has worked his rear off. He deserves an
opportunity to play in the ball games. George was a little bit hurt
last year and we think that if we can take 15, 20 plays a game off of
him he will have a longer season. Be able to stay longer, healthier and
prolong, not only this year, but his years down the road. If we did not
have a good player, we could not do that but we have a good player (in
Searcy). We feel like he deserves the opportunity to play some and
somewhere somebody is probably going to get nicked up with only three
safeties. We need somebody that has some experience, too.”
PATRIOTS
The defense has been the red-headed stepchild in New England for
quite some time. Even dating back to the birth in 2007 of what has
become the Patriots’ annual aerial assault on the rest of the NFL, the
once proud defense was fading.
Now, over the last couple years, coach Bill Belichick’s defense has
been among the worst in the game. The bulk of the problem has come in
terms of stopping the pass.
New England currently sports the 22nd-ranked defense in the NFL. But
while the run defense has been impressive over the first half of the
season to rank tied for seventh in the league, the pass defense remains
among the worst in the game at 28th overall.
But the story isn’t that much different than it was a year ago when
the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl despite the 31st-ranked pass
defense. That team was also 5-3 midway through the season, but ran a
perfect 8-0 over the second half.
Are the Patriots capable of another such run this fall? With the
Texans and 49ers remaining on the schedule, it won’t be easy. But one
thing that New England teams often hang their hat on is that they
improve as the year wears on, playing some of their best football when
the season “really begins” in November and December.
Why is it that Belichick’s squads tend to play the best later in the year?
“I think that throughout the whole season we really preach
improvement every week,” defensive end Rob Ninkovich said. “So the goal
is to improve every week, not make the same mistakes twice. Obviously
that was kind of our theme last year, how we seemed to improve and build
on what we had every week last year. So that’s really I think every
team’s goal in the NFL is to improve every week, be a stronger team as
the season rolls on.”
If the Patriots are to do that this fall, the pass defense will have
to play better. The trade addition of Aqib Talib, who’ll complete his
NFL suspension this Sunday, should help over the final seven games. It
may also benefit the unit to play three games against rookie
quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill twice) as well as fledgling
veterans like Mark Sanchez and Blaine Gabbert.
There is also a bit more confidence as New England prepares to host
the Bills on Sunday, coming out of a bye week focused on some self
scouting.
“You kind of, in that bye week look at all the games you’ve played
and see the things that are working well for you and the things that
haven’t gone your way,” Ninkovich added. “So I think that obviously it
helps us to have that bye week right in the middle of the season. It
gives you some rest and you are able to get a few days to look back on
the games you have played and just improve on certain aspects of
everyone’s game.”
That means building on the team’s strength, run defense, and the
overall attitude that opposing attacks simply aren’t going to have
success on the ground.
“That’s the mentality what you have to have,” Ninkovich said.
“Really, every team we’ve played we’ve said, ‘Stop the run and get them
one-dimensional.’ That’s the best way to make a team start throwing the
ball is to shut down the run.”
Now, the goal is that when they force a team to throw the ball
they’ll be able to keep them from completing too many of those passes.
Though the pass coverage has taken a lot of heat, and Belichick felt the
need to add a veteran cornerback like Talib at the trade deadline, the
pass rush can be better as well.
Rookie Chandler Jones leads the Patriots with six sacks while
Ninkovich ranks second with four for a unit that ranks 21st in the NFL
in sacks per pass play.
“It works both ways,” Ninkovich said of New England’s two-headed
struggles on pass defense. “The rush. The coverage. The coverage. The
rush. There are times in the game where we have really done a good job
in coverage and kind of not gotten to the quarterback like we should
have. Then vice versa, where we’ve gotten to the quarterback. It all
works together. So I think as we keep growing and building it’s our job
as a D-line to do our very best to get to the quarterback.”
If that happens, then Belichick’s team might just go on one of its usual late-season runs toward the playoffs.
But it can’t happen unless the defense is better. Belichick sent a
message with the trade for Talib, and it was received loud and clear in
the defensive portion of the locker room.
“That we’re trying to improve and whatever we do here we do to try to
win,” Ninkovich said. “Obviously we’re moving forward and trying to win
more games.”
