Still, that’s little consolation to Bills fans who were hoping the replacement for Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell would be a marquee name. General Manager Buddy Nix was hoping that, too. The embarrassingly long search for the Bills’ 16th coach was peppered with reports of Super Bowl winners like Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden and Bill Cowher saying “no thanks” — even to being interviewed. One Super Bowl winner – Brian Billick – was interested, and so was Marty Schottenheimer. But neither got a call. (Schottenheimer’s son Brian, the offensive coordinator for the Jets, got a call, but he too declined an interview.)
A Super Bowl loss now would feel like a cold drink on a hot day; this team has missed the postseason for 10 straight years. That’s part of the reason this coaching job wasn’t appealing.
Another reason was the mess at quarterback. The Bills spent part of the off-season sorting through a three-way competition between Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm. Gailey says he’ll determine a starter before training camp, but that doesn’t mean the competition won’t continue through training camp.
It’s good that there are multiple quarterbacks – the odds of playing behind Buffalo’s offensive line and not eventually getting hurt are almost lottery-like. Some N.F.L. teams’ second-string lines are better than Buffalo’s starting front five. The Bills’ receiving corps is equally poor, save for Lee Evans.
You might be able to convince a big-name coach to take over an offense with a lousy passing game, but not if that offense plays its home games in grey, blustery Western New York. (Or, sometimes, Toronto.) As the N.F.L.’s labor negotiations continue over the next year, we’ll hear more and more about how difficult it is for the Bills to compete financially with clubs from bigger metropolitan areas.
Gailey knows the way for the Bills to compete will be with a run-first offense and a tough defense. Hence, the drafting of electrifying running back C.J. Spiller (No. 9 over all). Spiller joins Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch in what is now football’s most crowded backfield. True, running does not usually lead to winning in today’s game (ask the Dolphins, Titans or Panthers), but the late-season gales of Ralph Wilson Stadium create special circumstances.
As for how tough the defense can be…Gailey is hoping that a new 3-4 scheme – installed by former Dolphins linebacker coach George Edwards – will do the trick.
Accumulating talent will take time. Gailey hopes to accelerate the process by hardening the culture of a team that led the league in players on injured reserve in ’07 and ’09. Televisions in the weight room were immediately removed upon his arrival. Off-season workout intensity rose. The playbook thickened (safety Donte Whitner said there were already more defensive concepts installed by June than all of last season).
Things are changing in Buffalo. Will the change bring about more wins? Well…
Offense
The comment about a quarterback being injured behind this offensive line wasn’t meant to be snarky. It is unlikely that one player will start all 16 games under center for the Bills in 2010 – especially if Gailey initially taps Trent Edwards. The 26-year-old former third-round pick has battled various injuries in recent years, most alarmingly a 2008 concussion that seemingly shook his confidence for the remainder of the season. Edwards, with his somewhat-awkward push-throwing motion, has average arm strength. And he’s the furthest thing from a risk taker you’ll find.
Twenty-seven-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick has the makings of a quality backup: intelligence, grit, scrambling aptitude. But to be a quality starter, you must be able to stand in a muddied pocket, dissect a defense and rifle the ball to a moving target before the throwing lane is clearly defined. Fitzpatrick exhibits none of these traits.
Third-year pro Brian Brohm is younger and being considered part of the competition, but the Bills would probably invest their future in seventh-round rookie Levi Brown before they turned to Brohm. The best man for the starting job is whoever can do the most to survive behind this offensive line (Fitzpatrick is the best scrambler of the group).
Since we keep referring to this hapless offensive line, let’s introduce everyone. Left tackle Demetrius Bell, a seventh-round pick in ’08, tore his ACL last November. His recovery is reportedly going well, though even if he’s 100 percent, sloppy technique, as well as poor quickness and strength, leave him nowhere near qualified to start.
Right guard Eric Wood is coming off an injury even more severe than Bell’s. Last November, the ’09 first-round pick fractured the tibia and fibula of his left leg. If Wood is unavailable, the Bills will most likely turn to versatile but limited veteran Kirk Chambers.
As for the healthy players…center Geoff Hangartner has decent mobility but iffy trench strength. Left guard Andy Levitre got sharper as his ’09 rookie season progressed, but he still must improve his power. Eleventh-year journeyman Cornell Green is being asked to stabilize the right tackle position.
Gailey believes that C.J. Spiller’s 4.27-speed will make the offensive line a better run-blocking unit. Looking at what Chris Johnson has done for the Titans’ front five, this theory makes sense. Spiller’s big-play dynamics will eventually be a key of this offense. But don’t expect the Bills to drift away from running back Fred Jackson. The former National Indoor Football League star is coming off an impressive 1,062-yard rushing season. (Jackson also had 1,014 yards in kickoff returns, becoming the first N.F.L. player to eclipse the millennial mark as a rusher and returner in the same season.)
Jackson, with his vision and acceleration between the tackles, is clearly a better option than former first-round pick Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is a tenacious runner, but too often, he has to be tenacious because he’s fighting tacklers who take advantage of his impatience or misreads. Off-field issues don’t help Lynch’s cause, but make no mistake: his decreased role is a product of mechanical, unrefined running.
The Bills are fortunate that Spiller is electrifying in the flats, and that Jackson is soft-handed and that Lynch runs O.K. routes. The running backs are going to be crucial contributors in the passing game, given the paucity of talent at wide receiver. Lee Evans is the only legitimate N.F.L. wideout on this roster. Speed and an ability to track a hanging deep ball make Evans one of the game’s top vertical threats. Problem is, there’s no quarterback capable of stretching the field. With Terrell Owens gone, defenses will go back to hounding Evans. Who will relieve the pressure?
James Hardy caught nine passes in 14 games as a second-round rookie in ’08, then missed almost all of last season rehabbing an ACL injury. On most teams, the 6’5” 220-pounder would be a red zone specialist. But Buffalo’s top backup receivers are former Patriot bust Chad Jackson (six games played the last three years, including zero last season), shifty Roscoe Parrish (perpetual trade bait), fourth-round rookie Marcus Easley (believed by many to be a one-hit wonder at Connecticut) and ’08 seventh-round pick Steve Johnson (two receptions in ’09).
Buffalo’s best receiving talent after Evans is probably Shawn Nelson, an explosive, supple second-year tight end who will start ahead of H-back Derek Schouman. With good coaching, Nelson can become a star.
Defense
It was decided that a system overhaul was the best solution for improving a porous run defense (ranked 30th in ’09, 22nd in ’08 and 25th in ’07). George Edwards was brought in to install a flexible 3-4 scheme. Gailey and Edwards are big on adjusting the scheme to fit personnel, which is why the Bills will employ more of a gap-attacking 3-4, like what you see in Dallas and Arizona. This makes sense for when energetic 306-pound nose tackle Kyle Williams is on the field. The hope is that 314-pound rookie nose tackle Torell Troup can be a more traditional plugger, although the second-rounder was a 4-3 defensive tackle at Central Florida and may require time to adjust. Troup at least has the thick lower body needed to fight two gaps.
You can’t help but wonder what Marcus Stroud will bring at left end. He lacked enthusiasm as a playside run-defender last season; will he be willing to anchor and eat blocks? Right end Dwan Edwards spent most of his first six seasons as a backup in Baltimore’s 3-4; the Bills gave him $18 million over four years to come here and start. Edwards has good lateral athleticism, but at 290 pounds, he gives up ground against the run.
If John McCargo knew how to take advantage of his natural gifts, he’d be a starter. Instead, he’ll fight plodding veteran Spencer Johnson and third-round rookie Alex Carrington for second-string snaps.
Inside linebacker Paul Posluszny will benefit greatly from the new scheme. Fundamentally, Posluszny is exquisite. Athletically, he lacks elite lateral explosiveness. But in this system, he gets to share the load with fellow inside man Andra Davis, a 3-4 aficionado who signed here in part because he loved playing for Edwards in Cleveland and linebackers coach Bob Sanders at Florida. The fact that Davis was brought in – and that Reggie Torbor, another 3-4 veteran, was signed in late spring – tells you the Bills are skeptical that Kawika Mitchell can bounce back from the knee/quad operation that derailed his ’09 season.
As teams like the Chiefs and Jaguars have recently discovered, a 3-4 is doomed if the outside linebackers can’t rush the passer. If 32-year-old former Pro Bowler Aaron Schobel indeed retires, the Bills are in trouble. Aaron Maybin should be much better now that he has increased his weight from 230 to 250 and is in a scheme suited for him, but that’s not to say that Maybin, a first-round pick last year, will be ready for a starting right outside linebacker role. And it’s already a stretch to think that former defensive end Chris Kelsay can handle the versatile demands of starting at the left outside spot.
Of course, if the Bills fail to generate a consistent pass-rush in ’10 – which is the prediction here – they at least have something the Chiefs and Jaguars haven’t had: an outstanding secondary. Cornerback Terrence McGee is a scrappy playmaker. Drayton Florence is a solid No. 2. Speedy third-year corner Leodis McKelvin showed star potential before fracturing his fibula last season. Whether McKelvin starts ahead of Florence or not, expect the Bills to use three-corner packages frequently. For depth, Reggie Corner is an adequate one-on-one defender, although vulnerable to quick slants. Don’t be surprised if athletic Ashton Youboty gets the No. 4 job.
Free safety Jairus Byrd tied for the league lead with nine interceptions as a rookie last season. Byrd should have even more range and flexibility after hip surgery on a bothersome labrum. The strong safety duties are up for grabs. Emotional leader George Wilson is the soundest option, but former first-round pick Donte Whitner is a better downhill attacker. Bryan Scott is also formidable in the box, mainly as a dime linebacker.
Special Teams
Special-teams guru Bobby April will be missed, but maybe not in the kicking game. Kicker Rian Lindell and punter Brian Moorman are two of the best at what they do – especially when you consider how often they have to work in windy home conditions. Normally a return specialist as electrifying as Roscoe Parrish would have no trouble maintaining a roster spot, but the Bills have several outstanding fall-back options, including C.J. Spiller, Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin.
Bottom Line
The offense’s inability to move the ball through the air is too much to overcome. And even if the Bills had an average passing game, there’s still the iffy defensive front seven.
Prediction: 4th A.F.C. East
No comments:
Post a Comment