Week 14 College Football Championship Saturday

Fred Bierman - This is it. The last weekend of college football. It seems as if we’re getting used to the idea of Oregon playing Auburn in Glendale, but I think that we’re forgetting that sometimes that last win is the hardest to get. Remember unranked (and sub .500) Pittsburgh shocking No. 2 West Virginia in 2007? What about No. 2 U.C.L.A. losing to Miami in 1998? No. 2 U.S.C. losing to U.C.L.A. in 2006? Those were the last games of the season and games that those teams were all favored in. Then you have the championship games, where teams have lost the chance to play for national titles in the past. Tennessee in 2001 and Kansas State in 1998 are two examples from the B.C.S. era.

So what about this weekend? Well, something is going to happen. It has to. Not that I wouldn’t love to see Oregon and Auburn play for a national title. I would. But it just feels as if e college football has one more surprise for us on championship Saturday. Just a hunch. It’s not as if I haven’t been wrong before. Anyway, let’s get to the match ups.
SEC Championship Game
4 p.m., No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 19 South Carolina, Atlanta, CBS

Announcers: Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and Tracy Wolfson

For Auburn, a victory in this one means a trip to Glendale, Ariz. to play for a national title. It’s that simple. Win and they’re in.

But don’t think that there’s not a fair amount on the line for the Gamecocks as well. A victory would mean the school’s first SEC Championship and the program’s first BCS bowl. Those are big prizes for a school like South Carolina that is making its first appearance in the SEC Championship game and is playing very good football right now. (Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss are the only SEC teams to have still not made it to the conference championship.)

These two teams met earlier this season on Sept. 25, when Auburn overcame a 13-point deficit to come away with a 35-27 victory. In fact, the Tigers have been coming from behind quite a bit this season, with eight come-from-behind victories on the year. Four of those were by double digits, including last week’s stirring comeback from a 24-point deficit to knock off Alabama in Tuscaloosa and keep their national title hopes alive. This is the sixth time that the SEC Championship has been a rematch, and four of the five previous rematches have seen the team that won the first meeting prevail in the second.

South Carolina has come a long way this season. The week after losing to Auburn on the road, the Gamecocks came home knocked off the then No. 1 Crimson Tide by two touchdowns. Quarterback Stephen Garcia got pulled from the Auburn game the week before, but played a near flawless game against Alabama to help the Gamecocks stage the upset. If Garcia can put together that kind of game this weekend, than South Carolina is going to be tough to beat. That might be asking a lot.

One of the key players in this one is going to be receiver Alshon Jefferey, who is one of the most underrated players in the nation. In the first meeting Jeffery caught eight passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns and Auburn has struggled to contain the SEC’s elite receivers all season.

As bad as Auburn has been against the pass this season, they have been very good against the run. South Carolina’s freshman running back Marcus Lattimore has had a tremendous season, but was stymied by the Tigers in their first meeting and carried the ball just three times in the second half of that one. Even if he’s not churning out yards, he will need to be more involved down the stretch for South Carolina to come away with a victory.

One of the keys to Auburn success against the run has been the play of tackle Nick Fairly, who has been one of the best defensive players in the SEC this season filling gaps against the run and sacking the quarterback a conference leading 8 times.

The fact that South Carolina has seen Cam Newton once this season would seem to be an advantage, but in fact Newton has been improving every week and is very likely even be a better football player this week than he was on that first meeting. Last week, Alabama focused on not allowing Newton to run and he responded with one of his best passing performances of the year. Newton is truly one of the most dangerous weapons in college football; he can beat you in so many ways and he seems to be getting even more adept at taking what opposing defenses give him and not forcing things. In my mind Newton is a lock for the Heisman Trophy and another good performance here would just further his position as the best player in college football.

This one is quite simply a must watch. It’s the last Saturday of college football. It’s the SEC Championship game at 4 p.m. Enjoy it. It’s going to be a long winter.
A.C.C. Championship Game
7:45 p.m., No. 21 Florida State vs. No. 15 Virginia Tech, Charlotte, ESPN

Announcers; Sean McDonough, Matt Millen and Quint Kessenich

With N.C. State losing to Maryland last week, Florida State backed into the championship game, giving the A.C.C. the marquee match up that it was hoping for a the beginning of the season. Although Florida State didn’t play a conference game last week, they dispatched in-state rival Florida with surprising ease. Victories over Florida and Miami this season ought to help the Seminoles on the recruiting trail and could help Florida State return to it’s glory days of the late 1980’s and 90’s. (From 1987-2000 the Seminoles finished in the top five every year. Think about that for a second.)

What hurt Florida State this season was back to back losses to North Carolina State and North Carolina as well as an absolute thumping at the hands of Oklahoma. Still, in Jimbo Fisher’s first season as head coach, the Seminoles are in the conference title game and seem to be headed in the right direction.

On the other side is a red hot Virginia Tech team that has won nine in a row after starting the season 0-2. They opened with a loss to Boise State in a very close game and followed that up with an inexplicable loss to James Madison at home. They regrouped (a lot of credit has to go to Frank Beamer and his staff) and are the first team since Florida State in 2000 to go through A.C.C. conference play without a loss. In fact, it was that 2000 Florida State team that defeated Virginia Tech (then in the Big East) for the national title.

This week’s game figures to be a close one, with both teams boasting experience at quarterback, solid running games and two of the conference’s stingiest defenses. Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is a pocket passer, while Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor is more of a dual threat quarterback. One of the keys to the game will be how Ponder plays against a ball hawking secondary that leads the conference in interceptions (Jayron Hosley leads the nation with 8 picks on the year).
Big 12 Championship Game
8 p.m., No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Nebraska, Arlington, Tex., ABC

Announcers; Brent Musburger, Kirk Herbstreit and Holly Rowe

The Cornhuskers have not won the Big 12 since 1999, but in their last season in the conference before moving to the Big Ten, here they are with a chance to end that streak. Conspiracy theorists in Lincoln seem to think that Big 12 officials have been out to get them (particularly against Texas A&M) and note that no one was on hand to present the Cornhuskers with the Big 12 North trophy last week when they beat Colorado to clinch a spot in this game. Not sure I buy that, but I love a good conspiracy theory.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, is no stranger to this game. This is the Sooners’ seventh trip here in nine seasons, but this year it was a little more complicated to get here than it was in past seasons. After beating Oklahoma State in a classic last week, the Sooners were part of a three-way tie atop the South Division with Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Thanks to B.C.S. rankings, the Sooners find themselves once again in the Big 12 Championship game, which they have won four times since 2004.

This is just a classic football matchup. Two programs that immediately come to mind when you think college football. But you better appreciate it now. This is the lat scheduled meeting between these two for some time. With Nebraska in the Big Ten, who knows when these two are going to meet again?

Two questions on the field coming into this one are which Landry Jones will come to play and whether Taylor Martinez will play at all. Last week Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones threw three interceptions in the first half against Oklahoma State, but rebounded in a big way in the second half. Martinez, meanwhile, sat out Nebraska’s victory over Colorado with an ankle injury and Cody Green played instead.
3:30 p.m., No. 2 Oregon at Oregon State, ABC

Announcers: Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge and Erin Andrews

This may not be the Pac-10 Championship game that it was last year, but arguably there is more on the line this time around. The Ducks went to the Rose Bowl last year, but this year their sights are set a little higher. Glendale, not Pasadena, would be the destination of choice for Oregon.

Consider what Oregon Coach Chip Kelly has done in only his second season as head coach at any level. He went from being an assistant at New Hampshire in 2006 to running the No. 1 offense in college football and being a win from playing for the national championship in 2010. According to USA Today, he stands to make a $4.3 million bonus for making that national championship. All this in a season where he threw his starting quarterback off the team in March.

How good is Oregon’s offense? The Ducks lead the nation with an average of 541.7 yards per game, prompting some teams to fake injuries in an effort to slow Oregon. That was what California did when they held the Ducks to 16 points in the closest to a slip up that Oregon has had this season. To slow down the Oregon offense California defenders would fall to the turf to feign injury in order to slow the pace. The Ducks’ offense is so fast-paced that there often isn’t even time for a television replay between their plays. They have the nation’s leading rusher in LaMichael James and a dual threat quarterback who has largely stayed away from turning the ball over throwing 26 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions.

Oregon State has been struggling of late, losing three of it’s last four and four of its last six. They have lost to some good teams in there (U.S.C. and Stanford), but have also lost to suspect ones (Washington State). A lot would have to go right for them to keep this one close. Namely running back Jacquizz Rodgers (who got some preseason Heisman attention) would have to have an absolutely bananas day. Still, this one is in Corvallis and as we should all know by now, anything can happen in college football. I could see flipping back to this one during the SEC Championship game to keep an eye on it.
8 p.m., Connecticut at South Florida, ESPN2

Announcers: Mark Jones, Bob Davie and Quint Kessenich
With a victory here a four-loss Husky team will clinch the Big East title and a B.C.S. Bowl ahead of a number of worthy one-loss teams. That’s just they way it works. Hey, a 7-9 N.F.C. West team is probably going to make the playoffs in the N.F.L. There have been years where sub-.500 teams from the N.B.A.’s Eastern Conference have made the playoffs instead of more worthy Western Conference teams. This is not a problem that’s unique to college football, but still, Connecticut in a B.C.S. game is going to rub a lot of people the wrong way.

That being said, the Connecticut football team is a great story. In his 12th season at the helm of a program that he took from I-AA to division I, Randy Edsall has his team on the cusp of a Big East title and a B.C.S. Bowl. Sure this is a team that lost by 20 at Michigan and was shut out by 26-0 at Louisville and also lost at Temple and at Rutgers. Those are not good losses. But they did beat West Virginia in overtime, edge Pittsburgh by two points and beat defending Big East champs Cincinnati last week to get to where they are now.

Standing in the Huskies’ way is a South Florida team coached by the former Connecticut coach Skip Holtz that is coming off a huge overtime victory over Miami. That win is a big one for this South Florida team (particularly in recruiting) and they will look to carry that momentum into this game. Starting quarterback B.J. Daniels is banged up, but his replacement Bobby Eveld led them to a win last week in the second half and overtime against Miami.

For Connecticut, keep an eye on Jordan Todman, who leads the conference and is second in the nation with an average of 148.1 yards per game. He is the latest in a line of successful Connecticut running backs.

So who wins the Big East if Connecticut loses? Well, West Virginia hosts Rutgers earlier in the day and a win by the Mountaineers and a loss by the Huskies would send West Virginia to a B.C.S. bowl game.