Yyduffy - Russell Wilson chose Wisconsin over Auburn and many have viewed this as a sea-change for the Badgers vaulting them into BIG title contention next season and potentially more. However, it’s not a given Wilson will improve the Badgers greatly and they were already presumptive favorites to appear in the title game.
Wilson is a tremendous athlete. That does not make him a tremendous quarterback. He regressed significantly last season, dropping out of the Top 60 in both passer rating and yards per attempt. Good defenses (UCF, Va. Tech, UNC, Maryland) and even a not so good one (East Carolina) controlled him and forced him into performances ranging from below average to abysmal. External factors may have diminished his numbers, but those numbers showed an average ACC quarterback.
Wisconsin will be a radical adjustment for him. There’s the new teammates, a new system and new opponents to digest without spring practice. He will also be asked to be far more conservative and efficient. At N.C. State Wilson was the offense. He often threw 40-50 times per game and took chances to make plays. Wisconsin throws about half as often. Scott Tolzien threw more than 25 times just once (26 vs. Iowa).
Looking at efficiency numbers, Wilson completed 68 percent of his passes twice. Tolzien completed 68 percent of his passes 11 times and 75 percent or better eight times. Wilson averaged 6.8 yards per attempt (tied for 68th nationally). Tolzien averaged 9.2 yards (5th nationally). Wilson threw 14 interceptions (among the nation’s worst). Tolzien threw just six (among the nation’s best).
Tolzien was limited, but he was the ideal quarterback for Wisconsin. He was asked to make throws he can make. He made them virtually every time. Even assuming a seamless transition, Wilson won’t be that efficient. A casual observer would argue that Wilson can make up for some of that with his big play potential. Those statistically inclined might point out it was Tolzien who threw a better deep ball.
Wilson probably will be an upgrade over someone without experience, but he may not be altering any foundations. He won’t need to, because Wisconsin was a presumptive favorite without him. The Big Ten is a mess, especially the Leaders division.
Ohio State should be banned from postseason play. That leaves Indiana, Illinois, Purdue and Penn State to challenge them in that division. Wisconsin misses Iowa, Michigan and Northwestern on the schedule. Their two big road games, Ohio State (scandal fallout) and Michigan State (being Michigan State), could easily not be so big.
Barring disaster, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Badgers don’t play in the BIG title game. Unless Taylor Martinez stays healthy the entire season, it’s hard to see another team beating them.
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