There will be overthought. With more than a full month between the
order-determining lottery and Thursday's NBA draft (7 p.m. ET, ESPN),
teams are sure to have put in many hours thinking and rethinking every
player. That often leads to picks such as Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan
or Michael Olowokandi first overall. So this mock draft takes a step back and tries to not to predict but project.
Here's USA TODAY Sports' common-sense approach to the 2013 NBA draft:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: SG Ben McLemore, Kansas
No one in this draft makes sense as a No. 1 pick. The talent at the top is weaker than any draft since at least 2006, when Andrea Bargnani was selected first overall by the Toronto Raptors. Moreover, none of the top prospects are ideal fits for the Cavaliers.
NORMAL MOCK: Who goes where?
ANALYSIS: Every team's draft needs
The best fit might be Otto PorterJr., but he lacks the upside to go first. That leaves McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Nerlens Noel and Alex Len. Noel and Len are centers with high upside, but both have leg injuries. Could a season defined by leg injuries lead to a draft headed by a player who can't even play yet because of one? That might be likely, but it doesn't make it right.
McLemore is the prospect who seems most likely to wind up an All-Star for years to come. He's a smooth scorer who doesn't force anything, an important factor for a guard playing next to Kyrie Irving. Dion Waiters, whom the Cavs drafted No. 4 overall last season, is more of a combo guard who could be better off the bench and could play next to McLemore in smaller lineups. McLemore also is ready to play for a team that could make a surprise playoff push next season.
2. Orlando Magic: C Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
McLemore would be the better fit here, too, but the Magic have the opportunity to take a risk with this pick because they're not going to be very good next season either way. Point guard is the biggest need, but Trey Burke would be a reach at this point. Noel, who is coming off knee surgery, could contrast with center Nik Vucevic to form a nice big-man pairing, playing together while also able to relieve each other.
NOEL: Knee injury will make him better, he says
3. Washington Wizards: SF Otto Porter Jr., Georgetown
The hometown pick makes too much sense to pass up here. Porter is a versatile wing with a great basketball IQ. He'll fit in perfectly with Bradley Beal and John Wall as the Wizards build a team that might be able to win now and definitely has a bright future. His upside is limited compared with other available options, but the safe pick makes sense.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: PF Anthony Bennett, UNLV
The Bobcats need a scorer. Kemba Walker attacks relentlessly, but he is not efficient enough to lead a team in scoring. Bennett has the look of a poor man's Carmelo Anthony, with natural scoring ability from either forward position. He contrasts sharply with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the high-energy No.2 pick of last year's draft who should form a nice combination with Bennett in the Bobcats' frontcourt of the future.
OH, CANADA: Basketball's future world power?
5. Phoenix Suns: C Alex Len, Maryland
Len could be the No. 1 pick, as the Cavaliers have shown interest in him. But he had surgery on a stress fracture in his ankle. The Ukranian big man has tremendous upside because of his athleticism and size, but he also is a project whose offensive skills come and go. Still, the Suns organization is undergoing a major overhaul this offseason, and Len is the best choice for a building block at this point in the draft.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: SG Victor Oladipo, Indiana
The Eric Gordon situation is a strange one, as no one is sure of the shooting guard's future. The Pelicans would be wise to move on, particularly with a playmaker of Oladipo's caliber available. He would take some of the pressure of Greivis Vasquez, who emerged as a reliable point guard last season, and run an explosive pick-and-roll with Anthony Davis.
7. Sacramento Kings: PG Trey Burke, Michigan
The Kings haven't had a good point guard since Mike Bibby was at his peak nearly a decade ago. Burke should be as good or better than Bibby. He would have had a decent shot at going in the top five, but five of the top six teams already start young and talented point guards. Isaiah Thomas is a fine scorer off the bench, but he's not the future for the Kings. Burke could help lead that organization into a new era.
BURKE: Point guard sizes up his draft stock
8. Detroit Pistons: PG Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Brandon Knight is not a point guard. The Pistons found that out as they tried to use the 2011 draft's No.8 overall pick at the position last season. But Knight can be a valuable contributor, particularly if paired with a bigger point guard. Carter-Williams is the most gifted passer in this draft and, at 6-5, can defend shooting guards. He will open up things for big men Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe while gaining chemistry with Knight.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
The T'wolves played Luke Ridnour and J.J. Barea at shooting guard much of last season, which simply doesn't cut it. Caldwell-Pope is a prototype at the position, a lanky gunner who can slash. He should make Ricky Rubio's life much easier by draining his three-pointers on a consistent basis.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: SF Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
The Blazers relied on their starting lineup more than any other team in the NBA last season, and it showed as they wore down during the stretch and faded from playoff contention. Muhammad gives them a scorer off the bench. The biggest immediate need is at center because of J.J. Hickson's free agency, but they already have a big man for the future in Meyers Leonard, so depth makes more sense in the draft.
MUHAMMAD: Why he says he's underrated
11. Philadelphia 76ers: C Cody Zeller, Indiana
Entering last season, Zeller was a favorite to be the top pick in this draft. It's not so much that he disappointed as a sophomore but that he didn't show the kind of expected growth required. Zeller is a remarkable athlete for a 7-footer and has a polished face-up game. He also fills a need in the wake of the Andrew Bynum fiasco that dominated the Sixers' season.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: G C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
The Thunder need a playmaker. They need a scoring shooting guard for the long run. They need a better backup point guard. They need someone ready to contribute to a title run. McCollum, a versatile combo guard, checks off every requirement.
BIG DREAMS: What players have to do to get noticed
13. Dallas Mavericks: C Lucas Nogueira, Brazil
The Mavericks aren't bringing many players back for next season and have almost no one under contract for 2014-15. That gives them great positional flexibility here. Nogueira is enormous and has every physical tool to become a force inside at either post position. He is a contrast to Dirk Nowitzki because of his athleticism and defensive potential, though that hasn't been fully realized. "Bebe" is more polished than many projects, and he could contribute in a small role quickly.
14. Utah Jazz: PG Shane Larkin, Miami (Fla.)
The Jazz relied on Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson to start 36 games last season while Mo Williams was out. That's an obvious problem for a team that nearly reached the playoffs. Williams isn't a true point guard, either, and Larkin, the son of Baseball Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, could allow him to slide over to shooting guard at times. The Jazz also need help on the wing, but this is more pressing.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: SG Tony Snell, New Mexico
NBA teams are desperate for players who can shoot three-pointers and defend both wing positions. Snell is the exemplar in this draft. The Bucks didn't get much offensive production out of their small forwards and might lose both of their top shooting guards (Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick) in free agency. Snell is ready to step in for a playoff team.
16. Boston Celtics: C Steven Adams, Pittsburgh
Regardless of what happens with Kevin Garnett, the Celtics need a young center. Adams, a New Zealander, has ideal size and athleticism. He's raw and might have been better off staying in school but has the potential to be special.
17. Atlanta Hawks: PG Dennis Schroeder, Germany
18. Atlanta Hawks: C Mason Plumlee, Duke
The Hawks are rebuilding their roster this offseason, with only three players under definite contracts for next season. That allows them to go with the best players available for the most part. Schroeder is a lightning-quick point guard with good instincts, and he would serve as a nice complement or replacement to Jeff Teague, who is a restricted free agent. Plumlee is a polished, athletic big man who works hard and could pair well with Al Horford.
FULL COVERAGE: Everything you need about the NBA draft
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: C Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga
After rounding out a high-potential guard rotation with McLemore, the Cavs can go for the more stable hand down low. Olynyk has a smooth jump shot and should be able to score with Irving, McLemore and Waiters feeding him the ball. He would also be a nice contrast from Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson.
20. Chicago Bulls: SG Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan
The Bulls have a few tricky decisions about their backcourt this offseason, but they might find themselves starting fresh. Hardaway plays nothing like his father, former All-Star point guard Tim Hardaway Sr.. He is a polished wing player who would fit well alongside Derrick Rose.
21. Utah Jazz: F Tony Mitchell, North Texas
With Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson both free agents, the Jazz frontcourt could look very different next season. But they don't need another true post player with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting. Mitchell would allow them to play small at the power forward spot or big as a small forward. He also adds explosive athleticism to a team that lacks it.
22. Brooklyn Nets: SF Giannis Adetokoubo, Greece
The Nets would love if Adetokoubo fell this far. For one, he has as much potential as anyone outside the top seven, with an enormous wingspan and a natural feel for the game. He also might stay in Greece, which would be great for the Nets, who are over the salary cap. Adetokoubo would be a great long-term replacement for Gerald Wallace, whenever he comes aboard.
23. Indiana Pacers: SG Allen Crabbe, California
The Pacers really could use a high-scoring combo guard, but Erick Green and Nate Wolters would be reaches this high. Crabbe is a very polished off guard who will complement Lance Stephenson well. He also provides the Pacers with their biggest need: shooting.
24. New York Knicks: C Rudy Gobert, France
The aging Knicks could use someone with upside. Gobert is the only barefoot 7-footer in the draft and has a record-breaking 7-9 wingspan. He's ridiculously big, in other words. He also is raw and needs to hit the weight room. Backing up Tyson Chandler, who developed slowly into a defensive force, should be a good experience for Gobert, who turns 21 the day before the draft.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: SF Sergey Karasev, Russia
The Clippers already lost Grant Hill to retirement and might lose Matt Barnes in free agency. Adding a small forward should be a priority, and adding one who can shoot like Karasev, particularly this late in the first round, is a steal. He might be the best marksman in the draft.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: F Livio Jean-Charles, France
As mentioned earlier, the Timberwolves need to add athleticism. Jean-Charles is raw but can play both forward spots and uses his athletic talents well. He would make a good complement to Kevin Love down the road.
27. Denver Nuggets: SG Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State
Andre Iguodala will opt out of his contract, leaving the Nuggets without a defensive-minded wing player. Franklin is a perfect replacement this late in the draft, a guy with great athleticism and tenacity who will play well off Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Evan Fournier. His greatest asset might be his rebounding, which will help the Nuggets continue to play small ball.
28. San Antonio Spurs: SG Ricardo Ledo, Providence
The Spurs are known for pulling guys from nowhere, and Ledo fits. He didn't play a single college game, failing to get eligible after a tumultuous recruitment. But he has great talent and could help replace aging free agent Manu Ginobili, now or in the future.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: C Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
The Thunder might decide to use the amnesty clause to cut Kendrick Perkins. Even if they don't, they could use more size inside. The Memphis Grizzlies exploited them in the paint. Dieng has the potential to be a dominant defender and would pair with Serge Ibaka for an unmatched shot-blocking duo.
30. Phoenix Suns: SF Glen Rice Jr., NBA Development League
With Len already locked up, the Suns should target a wing player. Luckily, there are many to choose from. If they don't like Rice, there's always Ricardo Ledo or Reggie Bullock or James Ennis. Rice has more than NBA pedigree, though, because he was battle-tested last season after leaving Georgia Tech. He led the Rio Grande Valley Vipers to a D-League title, averaging 25 points in six playoff games.
Here's USA TODAY Sports' common-sense approach to the 2013 NBA draft:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: SG Ben McLemore, Kansas
No one in this draft makes sense as a No. 1 pick. The talent at the top is weaker than any draft since at least 2006, when Andrea Bargnani was selected first overall by the Toronto Raptors. Moreover, none of the top prospects are ideal fits for the Cavaliers.
NORMAL MOCK: Who goes where?
ANALYSIS: Every team's draft needs
The best fit might be Otto PorterJr., but he lacks the upside to go first. That leaves McLemore, Anthony Bennett, Nerlens Noel and Alex Len. Noel and Len are centers with high upside, but both have leg injuries. Could a season defined by leg injuries lead to a draft headed by a player who can't even play yet because of one? That might be likely, but it doesn't make it right.
McLemore is the prospect who seems most likely to wind up an All-Star for years to come. He's a smooth scorer who doesn't force anything, an important factor for a guard playing next to Kyrie Irving. Dion Waiters, whom the Cavs drafted No. 4 overall last season, is more of a combo guard who could be better off the bench and could play next to McLemore in smaller lineups. McLemore also is ready to play for a team that could make a surprise playoff push next season.
2. Orlando Magic: C Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
McLemore would be the better fit here, too, but the Magic have the opportunity to take a risk with this pick because they're not going to be very good next season either way. Point guard is the biggest need, but Trey Burke would be a reach at this point. Noel, who is coming off knee surgery, could contrast with center Nik Vucevic to form a nice big-man pairing, playing together while also able to relieve each other.
NOEL: Knee injury will make him better, he says
3. Washington Wizards: SF Otto Porter Jr., Georgetown
The hometown pick makes too much sense to pass up here. Porter is a versatile wing with a great basketball IQ. He'll fit in perfectly with Bradley Beal and John Wall as the Wizards build a team that might be able to win now and definitely has a bright future. His upside is limited compared with other available options, but the safe pick makes sense.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: PF Anthony Bennett, UNLV
The Bobcats need a scorer. Kemba Walker attacks relentlessly, but he is not efficient enough to lead a team in scoring. Bennett has the look of a poor man's Carmelo Anthony, with natural scoring ability from either forward position. He contrasts sharply with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the high-energy No.2 pick of last year's draft who should form a nice combination with Bennett in the Bobcats' frontcourt of the future.
OH, CANADA: Basketball's future world power?
5. Phoenix Suns: C Alex Len, Maryland
Len could be the No. 1 pick, as the Cavaliers have shown interest in him. But he had surgery on a stress fracture in his ankle. The Ukranian big man has tremendous upside because of his athleticism and size, but he also is a project whose offensive skills come and go. Still, the Suns organization is undergoing a major overhaul this offseason, and Len is the best choice for a building block at this point in the draft.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: SG Victor Oladipo, Indiana
The Eric Gordon situation is a strange one, as no one is sure of the shooting guard's future. The Pelicans would be wise to move on, particularly with a playmaker of Oladipo's caliber available. He would take some of the pressure of Greivis Vasquez, who emerged as a reliable point guard last season, and run an explosive pick-and-roll with Anthony Davis.
7. Sacramento Kings: PG Trey Burke, Michigan
The Kings haven't had a good point guard since Mike Bibby was at his peak nearly a decade ago. Burke should be as good or better than Bibby. He would have had a decent shot at going in the top five, but five of the top six teams already start young and talented point guards. Isaiah Thomas is a fine scorer off the bench, but he's not the future for the Kings. Burke could help lead that organization into a new era.
BURKE: Point guard sizes up his draft stock
8. Detroit Pistons: PG Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Brandon Knight is not a point guard. The Pistons found that out as they tried to use the 2011 draft's No.8 overall pick at the position last season. But Knight can be a valuable contributor, particularly if paired with a bigger point guard. Carter-Williams is the most gifted passer in this draft and, at 6-5, can defend shooting guards. He will open up things for big men Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe while gaining chemistry with Knight.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
The T'wolves played Luke Ridnour and J.J. Barea at shooting guard much of last season, which simply doesn't cut it. Caldwell-Pope is a prototype at the position, a lanky gunner who can slash. He should make Ricky Rubio's life much easier by draining his three-pointers on a consistent basis.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: SF Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
The Blazers relied on their starting lineup more than any other team in the NBA last season, and it showed as they wore down during the stretch and faded from playoff contention. Muhammad gives them a scorer off the bench. The biggest immediate need is at center because of J.J. Hickson's free agency, but they already have a big man for the future in Meyers Leonard, so depth makes more sense in the draft.
MUHAMMAD: Why he says he's underrated
11. Philadelphia 76ers: C Cody Zeller, Indiana
Entering last season, Zeller was a favorite to be the top pick in this draft. It's not so much that he disappointed as a sophomore but that he didn't show the kind of expected growth required. Zeller is a remarkable athlete for a 7-footer and has a polished face-up game. He also fills a need in the wake of the Andrew Bynum fiasco that dominated the Sixers' season.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: G C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
The Thunder need a playmaker. They need a scoring shooting guard for the long run. They need a better backup point guard. They need someone ready to contribute to a title run. McCollum, a versatile combo guard, checks off every requirement.
BIG DREAMS: What players have to do to get noticed
13. Dallas Mavericks: C Lucas Nogueira, Brazil
The Mavericks aren't bringing many players back for next season and have almost no one under contract for 2014-15. That gives them great positional flexibility here. Nogueira is enormous and has every physical tool to become a force inside at either post position. He is a contrast to Dirk Nowitzki because of his athleticism and defensive potential, though that hasn't been fully realized. "Bebe" is more polished than many projects, and he could contribute in a small role quickly.
14. Utah Jazz: PG Shane Larkin, Miami (Fla.)
The Jazz relied on Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson to start 36 games last season while Mo Williams was out. That's an obvious problem for a team that nearly reached the playoffs. Williams isn't a true point guard, either, and Larkin, the son of Baseball Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, could allow him to slide over to shooting guard at times. The Jazz also need help on the wing, but this is more pressing.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: SG Tony Snell, New Mexico
NBA teams are desperate for players who can shoot three-pointers and defend both wing positions. Snell is the exemplar in this draft. The Bucks didn't get much offensive production out of their small forwards and might lose both of their top shooting guards (Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick) in free agency. Snell is ready to step in for a playoff team.
16. Boston Celtics: C Steven Adams, Pittsburgh
Regardless of what happens with Kevin Garnett, the Celtics need a young center. Adams, a New Zealander, has ideal size and athleticism. He's raw and might have been better off staying in school but has the potential to be special.
17. Atlanta Hawks: PG Dennis Schroeder, Germany
18. Atlanta Hawks: C Mason Plumlee, Duke
The Hawks are rebuilding their roster this offseason, with only three players under definite contracts for next season. That allows them to go with the best players available for the most part. Schroeder is a lightning-quick point guard with good instincts, and he would serve as a nice complement or replacement to Jeff Teague, who is a restricted free agent. Plumlee is a polished, athletic big man who works hard and could pair well with Al Horford.
FULL COVERAGE: Everything you need about the NBA draft
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: C Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga
After rounding out a high-potential guard rotation with McLemore, the Cavs can go for the more stable hand down low. Olynyk has a smooth jump shot and should be able to score with Irving, McLemore and Waiters feeding him the ball. He would also be a nice contrast from Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson.
20. Chicago Bulls: SG Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan
The Bulls have a few tricky decisions about their backcourt this offseason, but they might find themselves starting fresh. Hardaway plays nothing like his father, former All-Star point guard Tim Hardaway Sr.. He is a polished wing player who would fit well alongside Derrick Rose.
21. Utah Jazz: F Tony Mitchell, North Texas
With Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson both free agents, the Jazz frontcourt could look very different next season. But they don't need another true post player with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting. Mitchell would allow them to play small at the power forward spot or big as a small forward. He also adds explosive athleticism to a team that lacks it.
22. Brooklyn Nets: SF Giannis Adetokoubo, Greece
The Nets would love if Adetokoubo fell this far. For one, he has as much potential as anyone outside the top seven, with an enormous wingspan and a natural feel for the game. He also might stay in Greece, which would be great for the Nets, who are over the salary cap. Adetokoubo would be a great long-term replacement for Gerald Wallace, whenever he comes aboard.
23. Indiana Pacers: SG Allen Crabbe, California
The Pacers really could use a high-scoring combo guard, but Erick Green and Nate Wolters would be reaches this high. Crabbe is a very polished off guard who will complement Lance Stephenson well. He also provides the Pacers with their biggest need: shooting.
24. New York Knicks: C Rudy Gobert, France
The aging Knicks could use someone with upside. Gobert is the only barefoot 7-footer in the draft and has a record-breaking 7-9 wingspan. He's ridiculously big, in other words. He also is raw and needs to hit the weight room. Backing up Tyson Chandler, who developed slowly into a defensive force, should be a good experience for Gobert, who turns 21 the day before the draft.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: SF Sergey Karasev, Russia
The Clippers already lost Grant Hill to retirement and might lose Matt Barnes in free agency. Adding a small forward should be a priority, and adding one who can shoot like Karasev, particularly this late in the first round, is a steal. He might be the best marksman in the draft.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: F Livio Jean-Charles, France
As mentioned earlier, the Timberwolves need to add athleticism. Jean-Charles is raw but can play both forward spots and uses his athletic talents well. He would make a good complement to Kevin Love down the road.
27. Denver Nuggets: SG Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State
Andre Iguodala will opt out of his contract, leaving the Nuggets without a defensive-minded wing player. Franklin is a perfect replacement this late in the draft, a guy with great athleticism and tenacity who will play well off Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Evan Fournier. His greatest asset might be his rebounding, which will help the Nuggets continue to play small ball.
28. San Antonio Spurs: SG Ricardo Ledo, Providence
The Spurs are known for pulling guys from nowhere, and Ledo fits. He didn't play a single college game, failing to get eligible after a tumultuous recruitment. But he has great talent and could help replace aging free agent Manu Ginobili, now or in the future.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: C Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
The Thunder might decide to use the amnesty clause to cut Kendrick Perkins. Even if they don't, they could use more size inside. The Memphis Grizzlies exploited them in the paint. Dieng has the potential to be a dominant defender and would pair with Serge Ibaka for an unmatched shot-blocking duo.
30. Phoenix Suns: SF Glen Rice Jr., NBA Development League
With Len already locked up, the Suns should target a wing player. Luckily, there are many to choose from. If they don't like Rice, there's always Ricardo Ledo or Reggie Bullock or James Ennis. Rice has more than NBA pedigree, though, because he was battle-tested last season after leaving Georgia Tech. He led the Rio Grande Valley Vipers to a D-League title, averaging 25 points in six playoff games.
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