FOUR IMPACT PLAYERS
Colts QB Peyton Manning For the Saints to have any chance, they have to stop Manning on third down. The Vikings were able to convert seven of 12 third-down opportunities against the Saints in the NFC title game. The Colts convert at an amazing rate of 49 percent. That's partly because of Manning's passing abilities, but also because of how he manages first and second down to create more third-and-short situations than any other team in the league.
Saints QB Drew Brees Brees didn't have a great NFC title game, but he also didn't throw the game away like Brett Favre did at the end. Brees hasn't been intercepted in 63 postseason passes. And he threw only 11 in 514 regular-season attempts. And, oh yeah, he broke an NFL record by completing 70.6 percent of his passes during the regular season. Brees threw for only 197 yards against the Vikings, but he did have three TDs. The Colts play a similar Tampa 2 defense.
Colts DE Dwight Freeney All eyes will be on the Colts pass rusher to see whether he's: A) able to play on a damaged right ankle that has a torn ligament; and B) able to play well enough to put any kind of pressure on Brees. One would have to assume Freeney will give it a try since it's the Super Bowl. If he can play well, Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod will have to deal with a player who has more sacks (89), tackles for loss (119) and forced fumbles (37) than Saints CB Jabari Greer When Greer is healthy, which he finally is now, the Saints' pass defense is much better. He did a decent job containing the Vikings' Sidney Rice in the NFC title game. Sunday, he'll be matched up with Reggie Wayne, who caught 100 passes, including 10 for TDs, during the regular season. Wayne was shut down in the AFC title game by Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. Manning would like to go back to Wayne but doesn't have a problem spreading it around. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon combined for 18 catches and 274 yards and two TDs against the Jets.
THREE KEYS TO THE GAME
Protecting the passer For the first time in years, the Super Bowl features the two best teams with the two best quarterbacks in the league. Protecting them will be the key to victory. The Colts' Peyton Manning was sacked a career-low 10 times during the regular season but has gone down four times in two playoff games. Brees' accuracy and aggressiveness down the field depend heavily on good protection. The Vikings disrupted his rhythm some in the NFC title game. The Colts can do the same if Dwight Freeney is healthy.
Control the ball Neither team is built around running the football. But the Saints are better equipped with a more physical offensive line and the diverse running styles of the more powerful Pierre Thomas, the elusive Reggie Bush and the short-yardage efficiency of Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton. Limiting Manning's number of possessions is the best way to beat him, although it's not a foolproof method for success, as the Dolphins found out early in the season. The Colts offensive line is built for one thing -- to protect Manning. Indy was last in the league in rushing (80.9), but Manning is talented enough to control the ball with the passing game.
It's the turnovers, stupid Most of this other stuff won't end up meaning squat if the turnover bug bites. Two weeks ago, the Vikings dominated the Saints in every statistical category but lost in overtime because they turned the ball over five times. One of the main reasons the Saints are playing Sunday is takeaways. They were second in the league with 39 this season. They also were third in turnover differential (plus-11), while the Colts were tied for 13th at plus-2.
Saints CB Jabari Greer When Greer is healthy, which he finally is now, the Saints' pass defense is much better. He did a decent job containing the Vikings' Sidney Rice in the NFC title game. Sunday, he'll be matched up with Reggie Wayne, who caught 100 passes, including 10 for TDs, during the regular season. Wayne was shut down in the AFC title game by Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. Manning would like to go back to Wayne but doesn't have a problem spreading it around. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon combined for 18 catches and 274 yards and two TDs against the Jets.
THREE KEYS TO THE GAME
Protecting the passer For the first time in years, the Super Bowl features the two best teams with the two best quarterbacks in the league. Protecting them will be the key to victory. The Colts' Peyton Manning was sacked a career-low 10 times during the regular season but has gone down four times in two playoff games. Brees' accuracy and aggressiveness down the field depend heavily on good protection. The Vikings disrupted his rhythm some in the NFC title game. The Colts can do the same if Dwight Freeney is healthy.
Control the ball Neither team is built around running the football. But the Saints are better equipped with a more physical offensive line and the diverse running styles of the more powerful Pierre Thomas, the elusive Reggie Bush and the short-yardage efficiency of Mike Bell and Lynell Hamilton. Limiting Manning's number of possessions is the best way to beat him, although it's not a foolproof method for success, as the Dolphins found out early in the season. The Colts offensive line is built for one thing -- to protect Manning. Indy was last in the league in rushing (80.9), but Manning is talented enough to control the ball with the passing game.
It's the turnovers, stupid Most of this other stuff won't end up meaning squat if the turnover bug bites. Two weeks ago, the Vikings dominated the Saints in every statistical category but lost in overtime because they turned the ball over five times. One of the main reasons the Saints are playing Sunday is takeaways. They were second in the league with 39 this season. They also were third in turnover differential (plus-11), while the Colts were tied for 13th at plus-2.
Saints RB Pierre Thomas Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and the Saints receivers typically get most of the publicity. But the Saints have a better chance of winning if Thomas has the kind of game he had against the Vikings. It wasn't a huge game, but he had 14 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown, two catches for 38 yards and a touchdown, and a 40-yard kickoff return in overtime that set up a short drive to the game-winning field goal.
Colts special teamer Ramon Humber Bush is one of the league's most-feared punt returners. Humber is a rookie free agent from North Dakota State and Champlin Park High. They may be on different pay levels, but Humber will play a big role in trying to contain Bush, as well as the Saints' sneaky-good kickoff returners. Humber, a 5-11, 232-pound linebacker, led the Colts in special teams tackles with 17 this season.
ONE BOLD PREDICTION
The Saints and New Orleans are the feel-good story. The story everyone outside of Indiana wants to see as the storybook ending to this season. This is their first Super Bowl in their 43-year existence. It's a city still recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina 4 1/2 years ago. The Saints and New Orleans are simply impossible to hate. But sorry, Big Easy, the Colts will win. Peyton Manning will not have one of those Bad Brett moments. In fact, I think he'll have his way with the Saints defense and win by double digits. Colts 41, Saints 31
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