UponFutherReview - As you have heard, Cam Newton (Auburn QB) has been accused of a variety of things – all of which could either negate his eligibility as a player or, if not, his justifiable claim to the Heisman trophy. Seems like we’ve been here before. The question I have is whether proven or not, should voters hold these claims against him?
Let’s start with the basics. Auburn is undefeated and #2 in the BCS. There is zero chance that they won’t play for the national championship as long as they don’t lose. Their remaining games are versus Georgia (5-5), at Alabama (7-2) and against the SEC East Champion which is guaranteed to have at least three losses and most likely four. So, it’s perfectly within the realm of probability that Auburn will be undefeated when the Heisman votes are counted.
It’s also worth pointing out that five of the last six Heisman trophy winners have played for either the #1 or #2 (AP) team in the final regular season poll. Clearly, voters are tending to reward a player from a team that is great. In the one season since 2003 in which the Heisman winner came from a team other than the #1 or #2 teams, it was Tim Tebow (Florida, 2007) and it’s at least partly because he was #7 in total offense where the highest player for the #1 and #2 teams based upon total offense were #58 and #80.
In the case of Cam Newton, he ranks #11 in total offense per game. That might not sound like that big of a deal, but the only other recent player to rank above #11, but be on a #1 or #2 team was Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2008) and he won the Heisman.
Cam Newton has a very unique set of statistics. He has rushed for 1,146 yards and passed for 1,890. That’s over 10 games, but he has three left. By the time Heisman voters cast their ballot, he would have 1,490 rushing and 2,457 passing. There are very few quarterbacks who have ever had those types of numbers – especially when playing for one of the best teams in the country.
Before I look back, I would be remiss not to point out that there is actually a QB in 2010 with even better numbers. Denard Robinson of Michigan has already rushed for 1,349 yards and passed for 1,814. And, he’s done it in nine games as opposed to Newton’s ten! But, the problem of course, is that Michigan has three losses and is going to get a so-so bowl bid. That’s not exactly what Heisman voters are looking for.
Looking back, the most obvious similar situation was Vince Young of Texas in 2005. UT was #2 in the polls, and Young was #6 in total offense. He ended rushing for 1,050 and passing for 3,036. Impressive, but he only ended second in the balloting. Ironically, he was beaten by Reggie Bush who just gave up his Heisman trophy because of accusations that he was paid while in college. And, that’s the focus of this post.
Cam Newton may well be the favorite to win the Heisman, but that assumes voters dismiss the allegations or, at the minimum, decide they shouldn’t matter without more proof.
The NCAA is investigating. The FBI is investigating. Something could be learned that would have enormous affects on Newton, Auburn and the Heisman well before the voting takes place. So, it’s not just a question of his worthiness as a Heisman candidate, but also his eligibility as a college football player. If that ends up being more than questionable, it is conceivable that TCU could get into the national championship game through the back door. A lot is at stake and this subject is going to be cussed and discussed a lot over the next three weeks.
I don’t care who wins the national championship and I don’t care who wins the Heisman. But, the #1 reason I don’t care is because the B12 isn’t going to have a team challenging - barring a miracle (Go OSU!) and they aren’t going to have a B12 player in the Heisman hunt. But, there is another reason I don’t care… because I don’t vote! If I had a vote for the Heisman or in one of the polls, I would care because I would be forced to have to think through this issue.
The fact that Reggie Bush just gave up his award has to be fresh (super fresh) on everyone’s mind who is casting a vote. And, the information we have at this point would lead anyone to seriously believe that even if Newton won the Heisman that he will eventually have to give it up.
It’s not the Heisman’s fault that Bush is scum. They have no reason to be embarrassed that the trophy was vacated. And, by the way, on Heisman.com, when you look at the former winners, it simply goes from 2004 to 2006 as though the earth skipped a year. Bush is dead to the Heisman community. Can you imagine if they had to go through it twice – and in such a short period.
Therefore if I were a voter, I would absolutely have that in the forefront of my mind when voting. Here’s what we know – or at least what is being reported.
Cam Newton was a Freshman at Florida and played under Tebow. During that time FoxSports.com reported that Newton was accused of cheating as well as being charged with three felony counts – one of which involved a stolen lap-top. Apparently, charges were dropped when Newton went to pretrial diversion.
Florida (and Urban Meyer) have only indicated that they did not leak the information about his time in Gainesville, but he has not denied the accusations against Newton. Neither have Newton or his father, who played a prominent role in Cam’s recruitment process after he left Florida.
Initially, Newton went to a Junior College in Texas. Upon leaving there, he committed to Mississippi State. This is where the latest accusations come in. It has been reported that both he and his father called MSU to indicate they had withdrawn his commitment and instead opted to go to Auburn because the “money was better”. A former MSU player indicated that someone representing the Newton family had demanded $180,000 to go to the university. MSU head coach (Dan Mullen) has not denied it, stating only that those who need to know the details, know them.
The immediate question really isn’t about whether he is guilty or innocent. Do we honestly think we will know the answer in three weeks? The question is whether a Heisman voter believes he has reason to believe Newton is guilty. If so, is that enough to cause him to vote for someone else? Considering the great season Oregon RB LaMichael James is having, how hard would it be to simply pick him instead? After all, Oregon is #1 in the polls, not #2. James #1 in rushing (by quite a bit) while Newton is #11 in total yardage. It just wouldn’t be that hard to pull the other lever.
But, whether there is another easy choice or not, the real question is whether voters have the right to mete out justice simply by casting a vote.
If you don’t think they do, then you are certainly in the minority – at least based upon voters for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Take a look at how many voted for Mark McGwire. In four years, he has consistently received about 24% (75% required) of the votes despite being the 10th most prolific home run hitter of all-time. Unless they build a separate wing for cheaters, he will never make the HOF and probably neither will many other present-day players.
Clearly, voters have decided that, although they can’t do anything about the stats and records, they can do something about the Hall of Fame. The question today is whether Heisman voters are going to adopt the same strategy. I think they will.
A week ago, Newton was considered almost a shoe-in for the award. Today, it is highly questionable. Three weeks from now, who knows?
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