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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patritos Gameday Preview

PREDICTION: Patriots 45-17
KEYS TO THE GAME: The Patriots have won 22 of the past 24 meetings by dominating the turnover battle, and this season is no different. The Bills (minus-7) have to keep the game close enough to lean on their backfield tandem of C.J. Spiller (7.2 yards per carry) and Fred Jackson. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can attack deep if he has time to find WR Donald Jones, who has seven catches for 191 yards in the past two games against the Patriots. New England keeps the throttle open, averaging an NFL-leading 32.8 points and 440.8 yards per game. He has looked to TE Rob Gronkowski early and often against Buffalo, especially in the red zone. The Bills can’t sit back in a deep zone or they’ll set up RB Steven Ridley for another big day. Ridley and Brandon Bolden combined for 243 rushing yards in the first meeting (a 52-28 Patriots victory at Buffalo in Week 4).
FAST FACTS: Brady is 19-2 with 49 touchdowns against Buffalo. … Fitzpatrick has 300-plus passing yards in three consecutive games. He had four touchdown passes in the first meeting.
PERSONNEL NEWS
BILLS
–TE Scott Chandler, who is coming off a poor game at Houston, will be looking to get on track against the Patriots Sunday in New England. Chandler had four catches for 62 yards and two TDs in this season’s first matchup with the Patriots and can expect some extra attention.
–RB C.J. Spiller is averaging more than 7.0 yards per carry but his workload has been less than demanding in Buffalo’s dysfunctional offense. Spiller had just six carries in last week’s loss to Houston. He had just eight carries in this year’s first matchup against New England, Sunday’s opponent in Foxboro. On the year, he has 78 carries for 562 yards.
–PK Rian Lindell converted all three of his field-goal attempts in last week’s loss to Houston, making him 8 of 9 for the season. He remains second on the club’s career scoring list with 924 points, trailing only Steve Christie (1,011 points).
–QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has 71 career touchdown passes with Buffalo, placing him fourth all-time. He’s six behind Jack Kemp for third place. Heading into Sunday’s game at New England, Fitzpatrick’s career record as a starter is 17-28 with Buffalo and 21-38-1 all time.
–DE Alex Carrington blocked his third career field goal last week at Houston. It was his second of the year, making him the first Bill since Bruce Smith (three) in 1996 to have two or more blocks in a season.
INJURY IMPACT
–LT Cordy Glenn, who returned to the starting lineup after missing three games with a high ankle sprain, came out of the Houston game in good shape. Buffalo’s depth at tackle is being tested due to injuries and it was critical Glenn returned at this juncture.
–DE Mark Anderson, a key free-agent signing, won’t be available to square off against his former team at New England on Sunday. Anderson remains sidelined after a surgical procedure on his knee and may need more surgery if he doesn’t come around soon. The Bills’ pass rush remains sporadic.
–WR Stevie Johnson is nursing a thigh contusion but is expected to play Sunday at New England. How the injury affects his speed will be of concern as Buffalo goes against New England’s No. 22 defense that can be vulnerable to big plays.
PATRIOTS
–CB Devin McCourty received praise from coach Bill Belichick this week for the versatile defensive back’s ability to tackle. Belichick went on to praise that ability in rookie corner Alfonzo Dennard while saying that skill was important for all New England defensive backs.
“I’d say it’s pretty important to us. Tackling is an important criteria for every position but especially the secondary, that’s kind of the last line of defense,” Belichick said. “If the nose guard misses a tackle then hopefully you’ve got some guys behind him. If you miss a tackle in the secondary, there aren’t a lot of guys left. You can’t expect the nose tackle to run him down either. I think it’s definitely important. Alfonzo, he plays strong. He has good playing strength, he’s a tough kid. Tackling is on the positive side for him.”
–TE Aaron Hernandez was back on the practice field Nov. 8 after missing the previous day’s action for the birth of his first child, daughter Avielle. “It’s definitely a great experience,” Hernandez said of the birth, he and his daughter interestingly sharing the same Nov. 6 birthday. “And a beautiful little girl. I’m excited.”
“One thing I know, it definitely changed my life. I’m going to look at things differently,” Hernandez said. “And I may be young and wild, but I’m not. I’m engaged now, and I have a baby. It’s just going to make me think of life differently, and doing things the right way, because I know another one’s looking up to me. I can’t just be young and reckless Aaron anymore. I’m going to try to do the right things, become a good father, and be raised like I was raised.”
–QB Tom Brady is obviously a pretty fashionable guy. He’s done plenty of photo shoots and magazine covers. He’s married to the world’s greatest supermodel. But sometimes his fashion sense is still questioned in New England. That was the case this week after Brady was photographed at a special Aerosmith concert in Boston wearing Dwight Howard-like black-frame glasses, a black coat and a flesh-colored V-neck shirt. At his weekly press conference a local writer told Brady that sometimes he dresses “kind of weird.”
Brady’s response? “Thank you.”
When a follow-up asked what was going on with his fashion and whether he laid his clothes out, Brady offered little.
“I have no response to that,” the quarterback said with a laugh.
–DT Myron Pryor began the season on PUP with a pectoral injury. The fourth-year player was not activated to practice in the three-week window to do so on PUP, so he will remain on PUP for the remainder of the season. Pryor also spent the bulk of last fall on IR after playing just two games before a shoulder injury.
–TE Jake Ballard, claimed off waivers from the Giants this preseason, will not practice coming off PUP but rather remain on PUP for the remainder of the 2012 season.
INJURY IMPACT
–RB Brandon Bolden did not practice on Thursday as he continues to rehab his knee injury.
–DE Trevor Scott missed practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury that’s kept him out the last couple weeks.
–LB Tracy White did not practice on Thursday due to the ankle injury that’s kept him out of action for a month now.
–CB Kyle Arrington was one of 14 Patriots who were limited in practice on Thursday as the cornerback deals with a concussion.
–DL Ron Brace (elbow) was limited in practice on Thursday.
–S Patrick Chung was limited for the second straight day due to his shoulder injury.
–S Steve Gregory (hip) was once again limited as he tries to work back into playing shape after missing more than a month of action.
–TE Rob Gronkowski (hip) was limited on Thursday, though he hasn’t missed any action with the injury that’s bothered him most of the season.
–TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) was limited on Thursday with the injury that was originally suffered in the Week 2 loss to the Cardinals.
–LB Dont’a Hightower continues to be limited in practice with a hamstring injury, though he returned to normal game action prior to the bye week.
–WR Brandon Lloyd (knee) was limited on Thursday.
–G Logan Mankins (calf/hip) continues to be limited with the injuries that have affected him all season.
–LB Jerod Mayo (elbow) was limited.
–OL Nick McDonald (shoulder) remains limited.
–LB Brandon Spikes was limited on Thursday with a knee injury.
–T Sebastian Vollmer continues to be limited with back and knee injuries, though the health issues haven’t forced him to miss much game time this year.
–WR Wes Welker (ankle) was limited on Thursday.
–WR Julian Edelman (hand) was listed as having full participation on Thursday.
–DL Kyle Love was full participation despite a knee injury.
INSIDE THE CAMPS
BILLS
The Bills are being forced to shake up their shaky defensive secondary in time to face Tom Brady and his high-scoring New England offense.
Left cornerback Aaron Williams is not expected to play after suffering a knee injury in last week’s loss to Houston, meaning Leodis McKelvin will return to the starting spot. McKelvin, a former first-round pick who leads the NFL in punt return average at 19.5, has been an inconsistent player at corner but the Bills will need him to respond to this opportunity.
Meanwhile, Da’Norris Searcy is starting to take more repetitions at strong safety, a developing story as the Bills get set to face the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski, who has enjoyed repeated success against Buffalo, such as five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown in New England’s 52-28 victory over Buffalo on Sept. 30.
Williams’ injury won’t sideline him for the rest of the year, coach Chan Gailey said, but it could linger a few games. He said he’s eager to see McKelvin step up. Buffalo’s next option is second-year pro Justin Rogers after veteran Terrence McGee went on season-ending injured reserve this week with a lingering knee problem.
“Yeah, I think he is very motivated,” Gailey said of McKelvin. “I think that Leodis has never lacked confidence. He has a great deal of confidence in himself, his abilities and ability to play. He practices hard every day he walks on the field. You have to ask him to get the answer, but I think he has a chance to go play extremely well. Hopefully he learned from some of the things that happened in the past.”
McKelvin is a gifted athlete who has the speed to run with any receiver in the league. His problems arise from questionable ball skills; he has never consistently timed his jumps defending passes and he has dropped many would-be interceptions.
He said he’s eager to get back into the starting lineup and that he’s got something to prove.
“Most definitely,” McKelvin said. “Every time you go out on the field you have something to prove. You have something to prove to the guys that you are playing against. You have something to prove to the guys you are playing with and you have something to prove to the guys that give me the trust to go out there and perform.”
Gailey said he’s not displeased with Wilson’s play but at age 30, Wilson may benefit from sharing some of the wear and tear.
“(I’m) very satisfied with George’s play,” Gailey said. “Da’Norris is a good football player and he has worked his rear off. He deserves an opportunity to play in the ball games. George was a little bit hurt last year and we think that if we can take 15, 20 plays a game off of him he will have a longer season. Be able to stay longer, healthier and prolong, not only this year, but his years down the road. If we did not have a good player, we could not do that but we have a good player (in Searcy). We feel like he deserves the opportunity to play some and somewhere somebody is probably going to get nicked up with only three safeties. We need somebody that has some experience, too.”
PATRIOTS
The defense has been the red-headed stepchild in New England for quite some time. Even dating back to the birth in 2007 of what has become the Patriots’ annual aerial assault on the rest of the NFL, the once proud defense was fading.
Now, over the last couple years, coach Bill Belichick’s defense has been among the worst in the game. The bulk of the problem has come in terms of stopping the pass.
New England currently sports the 22nd-ranked defense in the NFL. But while the run defense has been impressive over the first half of the season to rank tied for seventh in the league, the pass defense remains among the worst in the game at 28th overall.
But the story isn’t that much different than it was a year ago when the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl despite the 31st-ranked pass defense. That team was also 5-3 midway through the season, but ran a perfect 8-0 over the second half.
Are the Patriots capable of another such run this fall? With the Texans and 49ers remaining on the schedule, it won’t be easy. But one thing that New England teams often hang their hat on is that they improve as the year wears on, playing some of their best football when the season “really begins” in November and December.
Why is it that Belichick’s squads tend to play the best later in the year?
“I think that throughout the whole season we really preach improvement every week,” defensive end Rob Ninkovich said. “So the goal is to improve every week, not make the same mistakes twice. Obviously that was kind of our theme last year, how we seemed to improve and build on what we had every week last year. So that’s really I think every team’s goal in the NFL is to improve every week, be a stronger team as the season rolls on.”
If the Patriots are to do that this fall, the pass defense will have to play better. The trade addition of Aqib Talib, who’ll complete his NFL suspension this Sunday, should help over the final seven games. It may also benefit the unit to play three games against rookie quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill twice) as well as fledgling veterans like Mark Sanchez and Blaine Gabbert.
There is also a bit more confidence as New England prepares to host the Bills on Sunday, coming out of a bye week focused on some self scouting.
“You kind of, in that bye week look at all the games you’ve played and see the things that are working well for you and the things that haven’t gone your way,” Ninkovich added. “So I think that obviously it helps us to have that bye week right in the middle of the season. It gives you some rest and you are able to get a few days to look back on the games you have played and just improve on certain aspects of everyone’s game.”
That means building on the team’s strength, run defense, and the overall attitude that opposing attacks simply aren’t going to have success on the ground.
“That’s the mentality what you have to have,” Ninkovich said. “Really, every team we’ve played we’ve said, ‘Stop the run and get them one-dimensional.’ That’s the best way to make a team start throwing the ball is to shut down the run.”
Now, the goal is that when they force a team to throw the ball they’ll be able to keep them from completing too many of those passes. Though the pass coverage has taken a lot of heat, and Belichick felt the need to add a veteran cornerback like Talib at the trade deadline, the pass rush can be better as well.
Rookie Chandler Jones leads the Patriots with six sacks while Ninkovich ranks second with four for a unit that ranks 21st in the NFL in sacks per pass play.
“It works both ways,” Ninkovich said of New England’s two-headed struggles on pass defense. “The rush. The coverage. The coverage. The rush. There are times in the game where we have really done a good job in coverage and kind of not gotten to the quarterback like we should have. Then vice versa, where we’ve gotten to the quarterback. It all works together. So I think as we keep growing and building it’s our job as a D-line to do our very best to get to the quarterback.”
If that happens, then Belichick’s team might just go on one of its usual late-season runs toward the playoffs.
But it can’t happen unless the defense is better. Belichick sent a message with the trade for Talib, and it was received loud and clear in the defensive portion of the locker room.
“That we’re trying to improve and whatever we do here we do to try to win,” Ninkovich said. “Obviously we’re moving forward and trying to win more games.”

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